By Martin Staffhorst
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Extra info for The Way to Competitiveness of PV - An Experience Curve and Break-even Analysis
It is difficult to estimate the value of r for the early nineties, because the market was so small and totally dependent on subventions. For high risk investments in economic science imputed interests of 15% or higher are used (r=9%), which also seems adequate in our case. For the later years the solar fonds can be used as an indicator. An overview of actual fonds of 2005 offer a interest rate of 5-8% [Siemer 2005]. Because the low-risk interest rate for the year 2004 was 4% [Bundesbank 2006], the value for r was between 1-4%.
The investment costs are annualised over the lifetime of the system by multiplying with the annuity factor. Annuity factor: a = k 1 − (1 + k ) − n The price of a kWh PV can be calculated including the other variables. Price of a kWh PV: PPV = a * C0 + C0 * cv H / G * PR0 PV Experience Curves based on kWh Prices 23 In this formula neither yearly degradation of the energy yields nor inflation is included, because it assumes constant regular repayments of the invested capital. This certainly could be changed, but would also complicate the formula, so that the advantage of simplicity compared to the DCF-Method would disappear.
The relationship is linear. Leaving other factors at their default values a change of the installation cost of 10% leads to a change of the PV kWh price which is also of 10%. 11 Leaving again all other variables at their default values the PV kWh price depends on the system lifetime like this: €/kWh PPV,D PPV,S yr Figure 3-3: Price of kWh PV in Germany (PPV,D) and price of kWh PV in Southern Europe (PPV,S) versus system lifetime (n) 11 PV system lifetime is defined as lifetime of the PV modules in this work.